The latest figures from the Housing Market Report 2025 and associated industry data paint a picture of a UK housing market that is stabilising rather than surging, but as Andrew Orriss, Chief Executive of the Structural Timber Association (STA) highlights, is also one shifting in ways that could favour structural timber.
The economic backdrop is steady but subdued. UK GDP data, sourced from ONS and presented alongside winter forecasts, shows the sharp contraction in 2020 followed by a gradual recovery and modest projected growth through to 2027. Growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, easing slightly to 1.6% in 2027. It is not rapid expansion, but it does suggest a more predictable environment for developers and manufacturers after several turbulent years. Private housing output reflects that same pattern. ONS data charting private housebuilding in cash terms highlights the pandemic dip, the strong rebound, and a subsequent cooling in activity. Construction Products Association figures show private housing output falling by 14.3% in 2023 and a further 4.9% in 2024. From there, the outlook improves only gradually, with projected growth of 1.0% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027.
Market pressures
Behind those numbers sit several fundamental pressures. Demand has slowed sharply in recent months. Housing Associations and councils are not purchasing Section 106 units at previous levels. Build-to-Rent investment remains active, but much of it is focused on existing stock. High-rise schemes have declined significantly, largely due to Building Safety Regulator delays, with London particularly exposed given affordability constraints and the requirement for 35% affordable housing on many schemes. Smaller housebuilders are seeing some demand recovery yet planning barriers and added cost burdens continue to challenge viability.
Yet within this cautious environment, timber frame is quietly strengthening its position. According to the Housing Market Report 2025, total UK housing starts in 2024 reached 132,460 units. Of these, 31,493 were timber frame, giving timber a 24% share across the UK.
A further catalyst is emerging among the major housebuilders. Data presented alongside the HBF Housing Market Report 2025 indicates that seven of the fifteen national housebuilders are expected to self-supply timber frame by 2026. This represents what has been described as a medium-term seismic shift. When the largest players alter procurement and delivery models, the impact ripples through the wider market, including the UK’s estimated 2,500 SME developers.
National housebuilders and forecast changes
Forecast modelling to 2030 illustrates the scale of potential change. One scenario assumes timber frame demand grows to 25% over five years, driven by both overall market activity and rising market share. Current output is around 35,000 units (averaged out over various house types and sizes) per year. STA estimates the current capacity from the industry being closer to 45,000 units. Once the national housebuilders are fully on stream with their self-supply to overall capacity of the industry could be as high as 70,000 units by 2030. With further investment and industrialisation capacity could comfortably riser to 90,000 units.
These projections depend on several assumptions set out in the forecast. Effective planning reform, a confirmed housing kick-start programme, unlocked council housing, supportive fiscal policy to restore consumer confidence, partial recovery of the Housing Association market, strong skills programmes, and a reconsideration of noncombustible structure restrictions in London are all identified as critical enablers. The absence of further economic shocks is also assumed.
The recovery in private housing is steady rather than spectacular, but the underlying trends are significant. We are seeing growing timber frame market share, major housebuilders investing in self-supply, and continued skills pressures in traditional construction. That combination creates a real opportunity for structural timber to play a much bigger role in UK housing delivery over the next five years.
Risks remain. Regulatory delays, cost inflation, rising insolvencies and medium-term skills availability are all highlighted as live concerns. Even so, the data from ONS, the Construction Products Association and the Housing Market Report 2025 suggests that while overall housing growth may be modest, timber’s share of that market is likely to continue rising. In a flat market, share gains matter more. If policy conditions align with industry investment, timber frame could move decisively from a growing segment to a central pillar of UK housebuilding before the end of the decade.
Scotland is the dominant consumer, with 95% of starts using timber frame. England accounts for 81% of total starts but currently has a lower timber frame share at 13%. Importantly, commentary in the data shows that England’s share has risen from 12% to 15% during 2024. Long-term regional data from NHBC registrations reinforces the direction of travel.
Timber frame has steadily expanded its footprint across Great Britain, with particularly high repetition in Scotland and growing adoption across northern English regions. The divergence between houses and apartments is also notable. The ratio continues to move in favour of houses, a segment where timber frame is particularly competitive.
