The UK needs to “plant more trees to produce more wood if the government’s construction material decarbonisation targets are to be a success,” according to new research.
Last month, the government released its Timber in Construction Roadmap 2025, outlining its ambitions for a circular economy and a sustainable, low-carbon future that utilises wood in construction. The roadmap sets a target to increase tree canopy and woodland cover in England from 14.5% in 2024 to 16.5% by 2050, aiming to boost the domestic timber supply.
In addition to increasing tree cover, the government also intends to use the wood for construction purposes.
The roadmap states: “To solve the housing crisis, we are committed to delivering 1.5M homes this parliament.
“To meet this challenge efficiently and sustainably, we will incorporate timber into the construction sector through innovative modern methods of construction. They will help us create high-quality, affordable homes while driving economic growth.”
Given that the built environment accounts for 25% of the UK’s annual greenhouse gas emissions, increasing timber use in construction is a commendable goal. It will not only reduce the reliance on high-emission materials such as concrete and steel but also sequester carbon. Using timber as a construction material can cut embodied emissions in a single building by 20% to 60%.
As part of this ambition, the government aims to primarily use structural timber techniques, along with other forms of wood in construction. The structural timber method involves using timber in the load-bearing structure of a building. The most established application of structural timber in England is in open or closed panel timber frame systems, which are manufactured off-site. However, a new research paper has highlighted that the UK is not currently in a position to deliver on these promises.
Demand outstripping supply
In a peer-reviewed article published in Nature, researchers Eilidh J. Forster, David Styles and John R. Healey conclude that current wood demand already exceeds supply—and this gap is projected to widen. As a result, the UK may be forced to increase imports, which carries an associated carbon cost.
The paper states: “Global wood demand has been rising by 1.1% per annum over the last 20 years and is projected to grow at even higher rates due to population growth, economic growth and the transition towards a net zero bioeconomy, as per the Paris Agreement.
“However, high levels of uncertainty surrounding wood demand projections, and key knowledge gaps on the impact of wood demand on terrestrial carbon flux and lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions remain.”
The authors say their findings offer valuable insight into the links between climate mitigation, wood supply, demand and usage—insights that are especially relevant to temperate countries aiming to expand their use of wood in response to climate goals.
The paper emphasises that under current trajectories, wood demand will significantly exceed supply in most scenarios. It states: “Although options for increasing wood supply before 2050 in most temperate countries are clearly limited, action started now and sustained to increase forest area and productivity could close the long-term supply-demand gap within the lower range of demand projections.
“However, the upper range of future demand projections cannot be met by temperate forests, implying a possible need to moderate prospective wood demand and use as the bioeconomy expands.”
The research also cautions that failure to address supporting or restrictive land use policies may lead to what is known as “harvest leakage,” defined as “a compensatory increase in harvesting elsewhere.”
If this occurs, the researchers warn that ignoring market dynamics and the responsiveness of supply to demand could ultimately result in wood and land-use practices that undermine net zero targets.
The paper states: “Restricting wood-use would delay bioeconomy growth and global decarbonisation, yet increasing wood-use without expanding forest resources and enhancing productivity could lead to net CO2 emissions.”
